US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -4.0pts: 21¢ at window start → 17¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 20¢ (band 20¢–28¢)
  band basis: warming_up
• BOOK Book 2.3:1 bid, $2.7k/$1.2k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.3× this market's 7-day norm, $31.0k in 24h
  volume from the 00:37 UTC snapshot (no close reading)

Book 2.3:1 bid, $2.7k/$1.2k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 31 Jul 2026, 23:08 UTC: Sustained reprice: 21¢ → 18¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 60s

Context

• 9 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 18¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 17¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.5pts
• Held 89% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 17¢
• Graded from 73 snapshots