REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
Window 31 Jul 2026, 01:02 UTC → 31 Jul 2026, 02:32 UTC
Price at window start 26¢ → at trigger 29¢ → at close 27¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 15 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +1.5pts: 26¢ at window start → 27¢ at close
- BOOK Book 2.7:1 bid, $4.1k/$1.5k within 10¢
- VOLUME $14.3k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
volume summed from the market's own trade tape
Book 2.7:1 bid, $4.1k/$1.5k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢
Triggers (1)
- 31 Jul 2026, 01:02 UTC: Sustained reprice: 26¢ → 29¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 60s
Context
- 6 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 29¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 28¢, held +2.0ptspts
- Peak move: +4.5pts
- Held 33% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: yes
- Price at close: 27¢
- Graded from 73 snapshots