NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 28¢ at window start → 28¢ at close
• BOOK Book 2.6:1 bid, $17.8k/$6.9k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.5k, 2.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 343 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.7× this market's 7-day norm, $55.1k in 24h

Book 2.6:1 bid, $17.8k/$6.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 31 Jul 2026, 13:36 UTC: Sustained reprice: 28¢ → 34¢ (+6.0pts), confirmed over 154s
• 31 Jul 2026, 13:41 UTC: Sustained reprice: 34¢ → 29¢ (-4.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• 38 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 34¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 28¢, held +0.0ptspts
• Peak move: +6.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 28¢
• Graded from 123 snapshots