REPRICED FINALISED: FROZEN Polymarket

Israel closes its airspace by August 31?

Window 31 Jul 2026, 23:34 UTC → 01 Aug 2026, 01:04 UTC

Price at window start 33¢ → at trigger 36¢ → at close 43¢

YES up · NO down

Frozen payload

REPRICED Repriced +10.5pts: 33¢ at window start → 43¢ at close
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 31¢ (band 23¢–31¢)
band basis: warming_up
VOLUME 2.6× this market's 7-day norm, $59.3k in 24h
BOOK Book 1.3:1 bid, $527/$417 within 10¢
UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $849, 4.2× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 674 trades / 7d

Book 1.3:1 bid, $527/$417 within 10¢ · spread 6.0¢

Triggers (2)

31 Jul 2026, 23:34 UTC: Sustained reprice: 33¢ → 36¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 60s
01 Aug 2026, 00:53 UTC: Sustained reprice: 36¢ → 43¢ (+6.5pts), confirmed over 86s

Context

12 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

+2m after alert: 36¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
+30m: 35¢, held +2.5ptspts
Peak move: +13.5pts
Held 78% of the peak move at close
Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
Gave back half within 60m: no data
Price at close: 43¢
Graded from 68 snapshots