REPRICED FINALISED: FROZEN Polymarket

Israel closes its airspace by August 31?

Window 31 Jul 2026, 20:58 UTC → 31 Jul 2026, 22:28 UTC

Price at window start 25¢ → at trigger 32¢ → at close 33¢

YES up · NO down

Frozen payload

REPRICED Repriced +7.5pts: 25¢ at window start → 33¢ at close
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 31¢ (band 23¢–31¢)
band basis: warming_up
VOLUME 2.5× this market's 7-day norm, $57.0k in 24h
BOOK Book 1.7:1 bid, $4.0k/$2.5k within 10¢
UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $872, 4.4× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 674 trades / 7d

Book 1.7:1 bid, $4.0k/$2.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

31 Jul 2026, 20:58 UTC: Sustained reprice: 25¢ → 32¢ (+7.0pts), confirmed over 90s
31 Jul 2026, 21:42 UTC: Sustained reprice: 32¢ → 36¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 72s

Context

28 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

+30m: 34¢, held +8.5ptspts
Peak move: +10.5pts
Held 71% of the peak move at close
Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
Gave back half within 60m: no
Price at close: 33¢
Graded from 48 snapshots