REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Window 30 Jul 2026, 01:39 UTC → 30 Jul 2026, 03:09 UTC
Price at window start 27¢ → at trigger 31¢ → at close 27¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 27¢ at window start → 27¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 26¢ (band 23¢–26¢)
band basis: insufficient_data
- VOLUME 4.1× this market's 7-day norm, $1.1M in 24h
- BOOK Book 1.5:1 bid, $169.2k/$113.5k within 10¢
- TIMING First reprice T+361m
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $700, 1.8× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 138 trades / 7d
- WIRE Wire: @financialjuice T−361m, link confidence 85%: "Trump: We're going to smack Iran a little bit."
Book 1.5:1 bid, $169.2k/$113.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (2)
- 30 Jul 2026, 01:39 UTC: Sustained reprice: 27¢ → 31¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 31s
- 30 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTC: Sustained reprice: 31¢ → 27¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 365s
Context
- 9 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 30¢, drift -1.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 27¢, held +0.0ptspts
- Peak move: +4.0pts
- Held 0% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: yes
- Price at close: 27¢
- Graded from 39 snapshots