Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +20.9pts: 78¢ at window start → 98¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 82¢ (band 77¢–82¢)
  band basis: warming_up
• VOLUME 2.1× this market's 7-day norm, $26.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 18.7:1 ask, $6.5k/$121.5k within 10¢
• TIMING First reprice T+931m
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $981, 6.3× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 171 trades / 7d
• WIRE Wire: @FirstSquawk T−931m, link confidence 75%: "GOLD ROSE AFTER THE FED HELD RATES DESPITE MIDDLE EAST INFLATION RISKS, CLIMBING AS MUCH AS 0.8% TO TOUCH $4,100 AN O…"

Book 18.7:1 ask, $6.5k/$121.5k within 10¢ · spread 0.5¢

Triggers (2)

• 30 Jul 2026, 14:58 UTC: Sustained reprice: 78¢ → 96¢ (+18.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 30 Jul 2026, 15:14 UTC: Sustained reprice: 96¢ → 99¢ (+3.3pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• 19 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 96¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 98¢, held +20.3ptspts
• Peak move: +21.3pts
• Held 98% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 98¢
• Graded from 147 snapshots