REPRICED FINALISED: FROZEN Polymarket

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Window 30 Jul 2026, 16:44 UTC → 30 Jul 2026, 18:14 UTC

Price at window start 50¢ → at trigger 54¢ → at close 53¢

YES up · NO down

Resolves 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC

Frozen payload

REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts: 50¢ at window start → 53¢ at close
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 51¢ (band 48¢–51¢)
band basis: warming_up
VOLUME 3.9× this market's 7-day norm, $7.2k in 24h
BOOK Book 2.7:1 bid, $25.0k/$9.3k within 10¢

Book 2.7:1 bid, $25.0k/$9.3k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

30 Jul 2026, 16:44 UTC: Sustained reprice: 50¢ → 54¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 91s

Context

3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

+2m after alert: 53¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
+30m: 53¢, held +3.0ptspts
Peak move: +3.5pts
Held 86% of the peak move at close
Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
Gave back half within 60m: no
Price at close: 53¢
Graded from 108 snapshots