Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -11.8pts: 70¢ at window start → 58¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 73¢ (band 73¢–76¢)
  band basis: warming_up
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 ask, $4.7k/$5.9k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $660, 3.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 424 trades / 7d
• VOLUME $17.4k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
  volume summed from the market's own trade tape

Book 1.3:1 ask, $4.7k/$5.9k within 10¢ · spread 2.2¢

Triggers (2)

• 30 Jul 2026, 13:09 UTC: Sustained reprice: 70¢ → 67¢ (-3.1pts), confirmed over 39s
• 30 Jul 2026, 13:15 UTC: Sustained reprice: 67¢ → 57¢ (-10.4pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• 38 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 66¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 58¢, held +12.4ptspts
• Peak move: +15.3pts
• Held 77% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 58¢
• Graded from 135 snapshots