REPRICED
WINDOW OPEN: LIVE
Polymarket
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
Window 30 Jul 2026, 23:38 UTC → 31 Jul 2026, 01:08 UTC
Price at window start 22¢ → at trigger 25¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 31 Jul 2026, 23:59 UTC
Live payload
- REPRICED Repriced +6.0pts: 22¢ at window start → 28¢ now
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 23¢ (band 19¢–23¢)
band basis: warming_up
- BOOK Book 2.8:1 ask, $4.8k/$13.7k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $4.3k, 6.7× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 1,477 trades / 7d
Triggers (2)
- 30 Jul 2026, 23:38 UTC: Sustained reprice: 22¢ → 25¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 31 Jul 2026, 00:14 UTC: Sustained reprice: 25¢ → 30¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 60s