REPRICED FINALISED: FROZEN Polymarket

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Window 30 Jul 2026, 01:49 UTC → 30 Jul 2026, 03:19 UTC

Price at window start 21¢ → at trigger 26¢ → at close 27¢

YES up · NO down

Resolves 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC

Frozen payload

REPRICED Repriced +5.5pts: 21¢ at window start → 27¢ at close
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 24¢ (band 21¢–24¢)
band basis: insufficient_data
VOLUME 1.9× this market's 7-day norm, $15.4k in 24h
volume from the 02:59 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
BOOK Book 1.3:1 ask, $6.2k/$8.3k within 10¢

Book 1.3:1 ask, $6.2k/$8.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

30 Jul 2026, 01:49 UTC: Sustained reprice: 21¢ → 26¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 22s

Context

3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

+2m after alert: 26¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
+30m: 27¢, held +5.5ptspts
Peak move: +6.5pts
Held 85% of the peak move at close
Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
Gave back half within 60m: no
Price at close: 27¢
Graded from 33 snapshots