REPRICED
WINDOW OPEN: LIVE
Polymarket
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Window 30 Jul 2026, 08:30 UTC → 30 Jul 2026, 10:00 UTC
Price at window start 28¢ → at trigger 32¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Live payload
- REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 28¢ at window start → 29¢ now
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 28¢ (band 21¢–28¢)
band basis: insufficient_data
- VOLUME 7.1× this market's 7-day norm, $59.4k in 24h
- BOOK Book 1.9:1 bid, $6.5k/$3.5k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $3.1k, 3.5× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 155 trades / 7d
Triggers (2)
- 30 Jul 2026, 08:30 UTC: Sustained reprice: 28¢ → 32¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 89s
- 30 Jul 2026, 09:13 UTC: Sustained reprice: 32¢ → 28¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 92s