Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 93¢ at window start → 95¢ at close
• BOOK Book 462.4:1 ask, $6.8k/$3.1M within 10¢
  depth from the 03:09 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• VOLUME $26.8k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
  volume summed from the market's own trade tape

DEPTH PENDING · spread 1.7¢

Triggers (2)

• 30 Jul 2026, 01:46 UTC: Sustained reprice: 93¢ → 89¢ (-3.7pts), confirmed over 30s
• 30 Jul 2026, 02:51 UTC: Sustained reprice: 89¢ → 92¢ (+3.1pts), confirmed over 60s

Context artifact

@sentdefender · X: posted 9 min before the break

With the United States resuming strikes against Iran, chances of Iranian military action against one or more of the Gulf States over the coming week have significantly risen on Polymarket, as traders predict there is a 26% chance that Iran launches strikes against one of the countries on July 31.

View the post

Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 91¢, drift -2.3pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 91¢, held +1.6ptspts
• Peak move: +3.7pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 95¢
• Graded from 35 snapshots