REPRICED FINALISED: FROZEN Polymarket

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Window 29 Jul 2026, 18:36 UTC → 29 Jul 2026, 20:06 UTC

Price at window start 60¢ → at trigger 66¢ → at close 53¢

YES up · NO down

Resolves 16 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC

Frozen payload

REPRICED Repriced -7.0pts: 60¢ at window start → 53¢ at close
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 54¢ (band 54¢–57¢)
band basis: warming_up
VOLUME 11.4× this market's 7-day norm, $224.2k in 24h
BOOK Book 1.4:1 bid, $93.2k/$64.8k within 10¢
depth from the 20:00 UTC snapshot (no close reading)

DEPTH PENDING · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

29 Jul 2026, 18:36 UTC: Sustained reprice: 60¢ → 66¢ (+6.0pts), confirmed over 32s
29 Jul 2026, 19:05 UTC: Sustained reprice: 66¢ → 54¢ (-12.0pts), confirmed over 98s

Context

0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

+30m: 54¢, held -6.0ptspts
Peak move: +6.0pts
Held 0% of the peak move at close
Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
Gave back half within 60m: yes
Price at close: 53¢
Graded from 16 snapshots