Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 69¢ at window start → 69¢ at close
• VOLUME 1.6× this market's 7-day norm, $10.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 17.2:1 ask, $400/$6.9k within 10¢

Book 17.2:1 ask, $400/$6.9k within 10¢ · spread 3.0¢

Triggers (4)

• 29 Jul 2026, 15:21 UTC: Sustained reprice: 69¢ → 61¢ (-8.0pts), confirmed over 79s
• 29 Jul 2026, 15:33 UTC: Sustained reprice: 61¢ → 69¢ (+8.0pts), confirmed over 61s
• 29 Jul 2026, 15:36 UTC: Sustained reprice: 69¢ → 65¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 126s
• 29 Jul 2026, 15:45 UTC: Sustained reprice: 65¢ → 68¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 53s

Context

• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 61¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 69¢, held +0.0ptspts
• Peak move: +8.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 69¢
• Graded from 42 snapshots