Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts: 66¢ at window start → 69¢ at close
• BOOK Book 4.1:1 ask, $1.5k/$6.3k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $6.3k in 24h

Book 4.1:1 ask, $1.5k/$6.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 29 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC: Sustained reprice: 66¢ → 69¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 33s

Context

• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 69¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 69¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 69¢
• Graded from 69 snapshots