Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 81¢ at window start → 78¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 79¢ (band 79¢–82¢)
  band basis: warming_up
• BOOK Book 2.1:1 ask, $2.3k/$4.7k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $12.8k in 24h
  volume from the 00:09 UTC snapshot (no close reading)

Book 2.1:1 ask, $2.3k/$4.7k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 29 Jul 2026, 22:48 UTC: Sustained reprice: 81¢ → 78¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 111s

Context

• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 78¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 78¢, held +3.5ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 86% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 78¢
• Graded from 23 snapshots