Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts — 13¢ at window start → 13¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band — above the upper bound 13¢ (band 10¢–13¢)
  band from 162 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 1.6× this market's 7-day norm — $25.1k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.4:1 bid — $25.4k/$18.0k within 10¢

Book 1.4:1 bid, $25.4k/$18.0k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 29 Jul 2026, 01:49 UTC: Band breach (upper): 13¢ → 13¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 5 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 13¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 13¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 13¢
• Graded from 146 snapshots