REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
Window 29 Jul 2026, 08:03 UTC → 29 Jul 2026, 09:33 UTC
Price at window start 55¢ → at trigger 78¢ → at close 73¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 31 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +17.6pts: 55¢ at window start → 73¢ at close
- BOOK Book 26.1:1 ask, $56/$1.5k within 10¢
- VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $18.5k in 24h
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $52, 21 trades in window
size baseline still forming: no 7-day trade-size sample yet
Book 26.1:1 ask, $56/$1.5k within 10¢ · spread 2.9¢
Triggers (2)
- 29 Jul 2026, 08:03 UTC: Sustained reprice: 55¢ → 78¢ (+22.8pts), confirmed over 30s
- 29 Jul 2026, 08:07 UTC: Sustained reprice: 78¢ → 74¢ (-4.3pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- 20 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 74¢, drift -3.8pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 75¢, held +19.8ptspts
- Peak move: +22.9pts
- Held 77% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: no
- Price at close: 73¢
- Graded from 161 snapshots