REPRICED FINALISED: FROZEN Polymarket

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

Window 29 Jul 2026, 12:02 UTC → 29 Jul 2026, 13:32 UTC

Price at window start 78¢ → at trigger 81¢ → at close 85¢

YES up · NO down

Resolves 04 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC

Frozen payload

REPRICED Repriced +7.0pts: 78¢ at window start → 85¢ at close
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 81¢ (band 78¢–81¢)
band basis: warming_up
BOOK Book 1.8:1 ask, $27.8k/$49.7k within 10¢
VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $56.5k in 24h
volume from the 13:28 UTC snapshot (no close reading)

Book 1.8:1 ask, $27.8k/$49.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

29 Jul 2026, 12:02 UTC: Sustained reprice: 78¢ → 81¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 31s
29 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC: Sustained reprice: 81¢ → 85¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 33s

Context

42 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

+2m after alert: 82¢, drift +1.5pts in the alert direction
+30m: 85¢, held +7.0ptspts
Peak move: +7.0pts
Held 100% of the peak move at close
Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
Gave back half within 60m: no
Price at close: 85¢
Graded from 72 snapshots