US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -4.0pts: 25¢ at window start → 21¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 23¢ (band 23¢–39¢)
  band basis: warming_up
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 ask, $7.7k/$9.6k within 10¢
  depth from the 20:00 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• TIMING First reprice T+78m
• WIRE Wire: @FirstSquawk T−78m, link confidence 85%: "BRENT CRUDE JUMPED 7.1% TO $87.87 A BARREL AS FIGHTING RESUMED IN THE IRAN CONFLICT, WITH IRAN LAUNCHING MISSILES AT …"
• VOLUME $37.7k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
  volume summed from the market's own trade tape

DEPTH PENDING · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 29 Jul 2026, 19:32 UTC: Sustained reprice: 25¢ → 19¢ (-6.0pts), confirmed over 120s

Context

• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 18¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 20¢, held +4.5ptspts
• Peak move: +7.0pts
• Held 57% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 21¢
• Graded from 16 snapshots