REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
Window 29 Jul 2026, 12:16 UTC → 29 Jul 2026, 13:46 UTC
Price at window start 40¢ → at trigger 27¢ → at close 23¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 31 Jul 2026, 23:59 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced -17.0pts: 40¢ at window start → 23¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 36¢ (band 36¢–41¢)
band basis: warming_up
- BOOK Book 1.0:1 bid, $5.5k/$5.4k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $904, 1.8× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 218 trades / 7d
- VOLUME $22.6k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
volume summed from the market's own trade tape
Book 1.0:1 bid, $5.5k/$5.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (3)
- 29 Jul 2026, 12:16 UTC: Sustained reprice: 40¢ → 27¢ (-12.5pts), confirmed over 91s
- 29 Jul 2026, 12:19 UTC: Sustained reprice: 27¢ → 21¢ (-6.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 29 Jul 2026, 12:44 UTC: Sustained reprice: 21¢ → 24¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 134s
Context
- 196 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 18¢, drift +9.5pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 26¢, held +14.0ptspts
- Peak move: +23.0pts
- Held 74% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
- Gave back half within 60m: no
- Price at close: 23¢
- Graded from 74 snapshots