US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +5.0pts — 63¢ at window start → 68¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.4:1 ask — $3.9k/$5.4k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm — $63.1k in 24h

Book 1.4:1 ask, $3.9k/$5.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 29 Jul 2026, 00:25 UTC: Sustained reprice: 63¢ → 66¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 29 Jul 2026, 00:33 UTC: Sustained reprice: 66¢ → 69¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• 14 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 66¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 69¢, held +6.0ptspts
• Peak move: +7.0pts
• Held 71% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 68¢
• Graded from 148 snapshots