US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 54¢ at window start → 55¢ at close
• BOOK Book 3.4:1 ask, $1.9k/$6.4k within 10¢
• VOLUME $4.4k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
  volume summed from the market's own trade tape

Book 3.4:1 ask, $1.9k/$6.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 29 Jul 2026, 02:48 UTC: Sustained reprice: 54¢ → 50¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 29 Jul 2026, 04:09 UTC: Sustained reprice: 50¢ → 54¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.18× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 21 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 50¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 50¢, held +3.5ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 55¢
• Graded from 134 snapshots