REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Window 29 Jul 2026, 00:48 UTC → 29 Jul 2026, 02:18 UTC
Price at window start 54¢ → at trigger 51¢ → at close 53¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 20 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts — 54¢ at window start → 53¢ at close
- BOOK Book 11.1:1 ask — $702/$7.8k within 10¢
- VOLUME $4.1k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
volume summed from the market's own trade tape
Book 11.1:1 ask, $702/$7.8k within 10¢ · spread 3.0¢
Triggers (2)
- 29 Jul 2026, 00:48 UTC: Sustained reprice: 54¢ → 51¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 29 Jul 2026, 00:59 UTC: Sustained reprice: 51¢ → 54¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- 8 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 51¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 55¢, held -1.0ptspts
- Peak move: +3.0pts
- Held 33% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: yes
- Price at close: 53¢
- Graded from 130 snapshots