Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts — 56¢ at window start → 54¢ at close
• BOOK Book 5.8:1 ask — $2.1k/$11.9k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm — $39.0k in 24h

Book 5.8:1 ask, $2.1k/$11.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 29 Jul 2026, 01:44 UTC: Sustained reprice: 56¢ → 53¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.09× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 7 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 53¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 53¢, held +2.5ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 67% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 54¢
• Graded from 146 snapshots