QUIET WIRE FINALISED: FROZEN Kalshi

Fed decision in July?

Window 29 Jul 2026, 15:14 UTC → 29 Jul 2026, 16:44 UTC

Price at window start n/a

Wire activity, no reprice

A linked post crossed the wire and this market did not move beyond its thresholds within the 90-minute window. Recorded for the archive; never delivered as an alert.

@DeItaone · 29 Jul 2026, 12:54 UTC

FED DECISION: JPM'S MARKET PLAYBOOK JPMorgan expects the Fed to hold rates, despite markets pricing a sizable chance of a surprise hike. Its base case is a hawkish hold (50%), leaving the S&P 500 roughly flat to down 0.5%. A dovish hold could lift stocks up to 1%, while a 25bp hike could send the S&P 500 down 1.5%-2%, with tech stocks likely hit hardest.