QUIET WIRE FINALISED: FROZEN Polymarket

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Window 29 Jul 2026, 15:07 UTC → 29 Jul 2026, 16:37 UTC

Price at window start n/a

Resolves 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC

Wire activity, no reprice

A linked post crossed the wire and this market did not move beyond its thresholds within the 90-minute window. Recorded for the archive; never delivered as an alert.

@zerohedge · 29 Jul 2026, 13:38 UTC

JPMorgan warns next round of selling will hit indexes beyond just single stocks: "Focus remains firmly on the AI/Tech/MOMO unwind. Key concerns include competitive threats from China — open-source models and DUV production, even as China SPEs are down again today — as well as circular financing and the role of leverage. The widening in NVDA CDS, as the receiver of capex with rising FCF, is more concerning than the move in hyperscalers’ CDS. We maintain factor hedges because crowding risk has not fully cleared on our books. It is worth considering whether another leg lower from here could come with a more pronounced pickup in index correlation." - JPM Market Intel