REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
Window 28 Jul 2026, 21:45 UTC → 28 Jul 2026, 23:15 UTC
Price at window start 76¢ → at trigger 73¢ → at close 60¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 31 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced -15.5pts — 76¢ at window start → 60¢ at close
- BOOK Book 1.2:1 ask — $2.6k/$3.2k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $690 — 1.0× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 523 trades / 7d
- VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm — $55.5k in 24h
Book 1.2:1 ask, $2.6k/$3.2k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢
Triggers (8)
- 28 Jul 2026, 21:45 UTC: Sustained reprice: 76¢ → 73¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 28 Jul 2026, 21:49 UTC: Sustained reprice: 73¢ → 69¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 28 Jul 2026, 22:08 UTC: Sustained reprice: 69¢ → 65¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 28 Jul 2026, 22:12 UTC: Sustained reprice: 65¢ → 68¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 28 Jul 2026, 22:21 UTC: Sustained reprice: 68¢ → 63¢ (-4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 28 Jul 2026, 22:39 UTC: Sustained reprice: 63¢ → 60¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 28 Jul 2026, 22:43 UTC: Sustained reprice: 60¢ → 64¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 28 Jul 2026, 22:57 UTC: Sustained reprice: 64¢ → 61¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- 67 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 71¢, drift +2.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 67¢, held +9.0ptspts
- Peak move: +16.0pts
- Held 97% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
- Gave back half within 60m: no data
- Price at close: 60¢
- Graded from 159 snapshots