US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.5pts — 60¢ at window start → 61¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band — above the upper bound 60¢ (band 42¢–60¢)
  band basis: warming_up
• BOOK Book 1.4:1 bid — $9.4k/$6.9k within 10¢
• VOLUME $528 in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
  volume summed from the market's own trade tape
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $124, 10 trades in window
  size baseline still forming: no 7-day trade-size sample yet

Book 1.4:1 bid, $9.4k/$6.9k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 28 Jul 2026, 15:13 UTC: Sustained reprice: 60¢ → 64¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 60s

Context

• 10 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 64¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 63¢, held +3.5ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 38% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 61¢
• Graded from 87 snapshots