REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Window 28 Jul 2026, 22:11 UTC → 28 Jul 2026, 23:41 UTC
Price at window start 61¢ → at trigger 56¢ → at close 54¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 20 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced -6.5pts — 61¢ at window start → 54¢ at close
- BOOK Book 6.3:1 ask — $1.2k/$7.5k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.3k — 1.7× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 683 trades / 7d
- VOLUME $3.0k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
volume summed from the market's own trade tape
Book 6.3:1 ask, $1.2k/$7.5k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢
Triggers (1)
- 28 Jul 2026, 22:11 UTC: Sustained reprice: 61¢ → 56¢ (-4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- 27 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 56¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 54¢, held +7.0ptspts
- Peak move: +7.0pts
- Held 93% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
- Gave back half within 60m: no
- Price at close: 54¢
- Graded from 159 snapshots