US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +4.6pts — 95¢ at window start → 100¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band — above the upper bound 50¢ (band 20¢–50¢)
  band basis: warming_up
• VOLUME 13.7× this market's 7-day norm — $2.3M in 24h
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $267.7k — 270.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,104 trades / 7d
• BOOK Book one-sided bid, $12.9M/$0 within 10¢
  recovered from stored in-window snapshots

depth $12,894,640/$0 within 10¢ · spread 0.1¢

Triggers (4)

• 28 Jul 2026, 00:17 UTC: Sustained reprice: 95¢ → 87¢ (-8.7pts), confirmed over 60s
• 28 Jul 2026, 00:20 UTC: Sustained reprice: 87¢ → 93¢ (+6.2pts), confirmed over 60s
• 28 Jul 2026, 00:37 UTC: Sustained reprice: 93¢ → 96¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 60s
• 28 Jul 2026, 01:01 UTC: Sustained reprice: 96¢ → 100¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 60s

Context

• 293 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 91¢, drift -4.2pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 95¢, held +0.3ptspts
• Peak move: +8.7pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 100¢
• Graded from 88 snapshots