REPRICED FINALISED: FROZEN Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Window 28 Jul 2026, 22:15 UTC → 28 Jul 2026, 23:45 UTC

Price at window start 26¢ → at trigger 23¢ → at close 22¢

YES down · NO up

Resolves 30 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC

Frozen payload

REPRICED Repriced -4.0pts — 26¢ at window start → 22¢ at close
VOLUME 3.6× this market's 7-day norm — $131.9k in 24h
BOOK Book 1.2:1 ask — $12.7k/$15.0k within 10¢
UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.1k — 1.3× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 1,010 trades / 7d

Book 1.2:1 ask, $12.7k/$15.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

28 Jul 2026, 22:15 UTC: Sustained reprice: 26¢ → 23¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

12 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

+2m after alert: 22¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
+30m: 22¢, held +4.0ptspts
Peak move: +4.0pts
Held 100% of the peak move at close
Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
Gave back half within 60m: no
Price at close: 22¢
Graded from 165 snapshots