Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts — 32¢ at window start → 31¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band — below the lower bound 34¢ (band 34¢–46¢)
  band basis: warming_up
• VOLUME 2.2× this market's 7-day norm — $83.1k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.3:1 ask — $3.8k/$12.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $660 — 1.9× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 898 trades / 7d

Book 3.3:1 ask, $3.8k/$12.5k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 28 Jul 2026, 03:37 UTC: Sustained reprice: 32¢ → 28¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 60s

Context

• 10 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 28¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 28¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 17% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 31¢
• Graded from 69 snapshots