Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -8.5pts — 63¢ at window start → 54¢ at close
• BOOK Book 14.9:1 ask — $1.8k/$27.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $717 — 1.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 474 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm — $37.7k in 24h

Book 14.9:1 ask, $1.8k/$27.5k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (4)

• 28 Jul 2026, 22:06 UTC: Sustained reprice: 63¢ → 59¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Jul 2026, 22:13 UTC: Sustained reprice: 59¢ → 55¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Jul 2026, 22:36 UTC: Sustained reprice: 55¢ → 59¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Jul 2026, 22:44 UTC: Sustained reprice: 59¢ → 55¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• 32 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 59¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 59¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +9.5pts
• Held 89% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 54¢
• Graded from 169 snapshots