Iran full airspace closure by August 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts — 32¢ at window start → 32¢ at close
• BOOK Book 6.9:1 bid — $2.5k/$369 within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm — $27.9k in 24h
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $351, 55 trades in window
  size baseline still forming: no 7-day trade-size sample yet

Book 6.9:1 bid, $2.5k/$369 within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (3)

• 28 Jul 2026, 22:28 UTC: Sustained reprice: 32¢ → 38¢ (+6.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Jul 2026, 22:50 UTC: Sustained reprice: 38¢ → 35¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Jul 2026, 23:20 UTC: Sustained reprice: 35¢ → 31¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• 53 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 38¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 35¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +8.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 32¢
• Graded from 165 snapshots