REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Kalshi
Fed decision in July?
Window 28 Jul 2026, 17:11 UTC → 28 Jul 2026, 18:41 UTC
Price at window start 80¢ → at trigger 77¢ → at close 78¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 29 Jul 2026, 17:59 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts — 80¢ at window start → 78¢ at close
- VOLUME 2.6× this market's 7-day norm — $2.0M in 24h
- BOOK Book 1.3:1 ask — $291.9k/$384.0k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $19.3k — 7.4× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 4,519 trades / 7d
Book 1.3:1 ask, $291.9k/$384.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (1)
- 28 Jul 2026, 17:11 UTC: Sustained reprice: 80¢ → 77¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 60s
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 78¢, drift -1.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 79¢, held +1.0ptspts
- Peak move: +3.0pts
- Held 67% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: yes
- Price at close: 78¢
- Graded from 170 snapshots