REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Window 27 Jul 2026, 15:14 UTC → 27 Jul 2026, 16:44 UTC
Price at window start 84¢ → at trigger 78¢ → at close 85¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +0.8pts — 84¢ at window start → 85¢ at close
- UNUSUAL SIZE 4 trades above this market's P95 size — largest $2.9k vs P95 $250
P95 from 3031 trades / 7d
- VOLUME 24h volume $134.4k — 37.2× the 7-day norm
Book 2.0:1 bid, $89.0k/$44.4k within 10¢ · spread 0.1¢
Triggers (2)
- 27 Jul 2026, 15:14 UTC: Sustained reprice: 84¢ → 78¢ (-6.2pts), confirmed over 60s
- 27 Jul 2026, 15:33 UTC: Sustained reprice: 78¢ → 85¢ (+6.9pts), confirmed over 60s
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 81¢, drift -2.7pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 85¢, held -0.8ptspts
- Peak move: +6.2pts
- Held 0% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: yes
- Price at close: 85¢
- Graded from 80 snapshots