US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts — 73¢ at window start → 70¢ at close
• BOOK Book 2.5:1 ask — $4.7k/$11.6k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.8k — 4.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 335 trades / 7d
• VOLUME $88.9k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)

Book 2.5:1 ask, $4.7k/$11.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (3)

• 27 Jul 2026, 21:11 UTC: Sustained reprice: 73¢ → 70¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 60s
• 27 Jul 2026, 21:21 UTC: Sustained reprice: 70¢ → 62¢ (-7.5pts), confirmed over 60s
• 27 Jul 2026, 21:27 UTC: Sustained reprice: 62¢ → 67¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 60s

Context

• 26 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 70¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 70¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +11.0pts
• Held 27% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 70¢
• Graded from 77 snapshots