REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
Window 27 Jul 2026, 05:48 UTC → 27 Jul 2026, 07:18 UTC
Price at window start 71¢ → at trigger 67¢ → at close 69¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 31 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts — 71¢ at window start → 69¢ at close
- UNUSUAL SIZE 1 trade above this market's P95 size — largest $536 vs P95 $531
P95 from 184 trades / 7d
- VOLUME $65.7k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
Book 1.1:1 ask, $7.9k/$8.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (1)
- 27 Jul 2026, 05:48 UTC: Sustained reprice: 71¢ → 67¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 60s
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 67¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 67¢, held +4.0ptspts
- Peak move: +4.0pts
- Held 50% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: no
- Price at close: 69¢
- Graded from 88 snapshots