REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
Window 27 Jul 2026, 17:23 UTC → 27 Jul 2026, 18:53 UTC
Price at window start 71¢ → at trigger 74¢ → at close 73¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 31 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts — 71¢ at window start → 73¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band — above the upper bound 71¢ (band 50¢–71¢)
band basis: warming_up
- VOLUME $71.0k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $216, 7 trades in window
size baseline still forming: no 7-day trade-size sample yet
Book 1.8:1 bid, $11.0k/$6.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (1)
- 27 Jul 2026, 17:23 UTC: Sustained reprice: 71¢ → 74¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 60s
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 74¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 73¢, held +2.0ptspts
- Peak move: +3.0pts
- Held 67% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: no
- Price at close: 73¢
- Graded from 90 snapshots