REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
Window 27 Jul 2026, 15:08 UTC → 27 Jul 2026, 16:38 UTC
Price at window start 37¢ → at trigger 41¢ → at close 97¢
YES up · NO down
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +60.2pts — 37¢ at window start → 97¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band — above the upper bound 41¢ (band 20¢–41¢)
band basis: warming_up
- UNUSUAL SIZE 52 trades above this market's P95 size — largest $17.8k vs P95 $980
P95 from 889 trades / 7d
- VOLUME 24h volume $483.2k — 3.0× the 7-day norm
Book 7.4:1 ask, $25.4k/$189.0k within 10¢ · spread 0.9¢
Triggers (9)
- 27 Jul 2026, 15:08 UTC: Sustained reprice: 37¢ → 41¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 60s
- 27 Jul 2026, 15:13 UTC: Sustained reprice: 41¢ → 61¢ (+20.0pts), confirmed over 60s
- 27 Jul 2026, 15:17 UTC: Sustained reprice: 61¢ → 51¢ (-10.5pts), confirmed over 60s
- 27 Jul 2026, 15:20 UTC: Sustained reprice: 51¢ → 64¢ (+13.0pts), confirmed over 60s
- 27 Jul 2026, 15:27 UTC: Sustained reprice: 64¢ → 68¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 60s
- 27 Jul 2026, 15:35 UTC: Sustained reprice: 68¢ → 78¢ (+10.5pts), confirmed over 60s
- 27 Jul 2026, 15:39 UTC: Sustained reprice: 78¢ → 86¢ (+8.0pts), confirmed over 60s
- 27 Jul 2026, 15:43 UTC: Sustained reprice: 86¢ → 90¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 60s
- 27 Jul 2026, 16:30 UTC: Sustained reprice: 90¢ → 97¢ (+6.5pts), confirmed over 60s
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 44¢, drift +3.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 86¢, held +49.0ptspts
- Peak move: +61.0pts
- Held 99% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
- Gave back half within 60m: no data
- Price at close: 97¢
- Graded from 80 snapshots