REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
Window 27 Jul 2026, 14:01 UTC → 27 Jul 2026, 15:31 UTC
Price at window start 35¢ → at trigger 28¢ → at close 26¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 03 Jan 2027, 00:00 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced -9.0pts — 35¢ at window start → 26¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band — below the lower bound 36¢ (band 36¢–46¢)
band basis: warming_up
- UNUSUAL SIZE 4 trades above this market's P95 size — largest $2.2k vs P95 $313
P95 from 782 trades / 7d
- VOLUME 24h volume $52.2k — 4.1× the 7-day norm
Book 1.8:1 ask, $1.9k/$3.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (4)
- 27 Jul 2026, 14:01 UTC: Sustained reprice: 35¢ → 28¢ (-6.5pts), confirmed over 60s
- 27 Jul 2026, 14:13 UTC: Sustained reprice: 28¢ → 25¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 61s
- 27 Jul 2026, 14:25 UTC: Sustained reprice: 25¢ → 28¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 60s
- 27 Jul 2026, 15:11 UTC: Sustained reprice: 28¢ → 25¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 60s
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 28¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 30¢, held +5.0ptspts
- Peak move: +10.5pts
- Held 86% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: yes
- Price at close: 26¢
- Graded from 82 snapshots