REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
Window 27 Jul 2026, 19:09 UTC → 27 Jul 2026, 20:39 UTC
Price at window start 57¢ → at trigger 61¢ → at close 61¢
YES up · NO down
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts — 57¢ at window start → 61¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band — above the upper bound 59¢ (band 30¢–59¢)
band basis: warming_up
- BOOK Book 1.2:1 ask — $7.2k/$8.4k within 10¢
- VOLUME $30.2k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $125, 40 trades in window
size baseline still forming: no 7-day trade-size sample yet
Book 1.2:1 ask, $7.2k/$8.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (1)
- 27 Jul 2026, 19:09 UTC: Sustained reprice: 57¢ → 61¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 60s
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 61¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 61¢, held +3.0ptspts
- Peak move: +3.0pts
- Held 100% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: no
- Price at close: 61¢
- Graded from 88 snapshots