Iran full airspace closure by August 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +5.0pts — 27¢ at window start → 32¢ at close
• BOOK Book 3.0:1 bid — $2.2k/$743 within 10¢
• VOLUME $37.2k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $496, 13 trades in window
  size baseline still forming: no 7-day trade-size sample yet

Book 3.0:1 bid, $2.2k/$743 within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 27 Jul 2026, 23:25 UTC: Sustained reprice: 27¢ → 33¢ (+6.0pts), confirmed over 60s

Context

• 12 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 32¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 32¢, held +5.5ptspts
• Peak move: +6.0pts
• Held 83% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 32¢
• Graded from 87 snapshots