REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?
Window 27 Jul 2026, 14:23 UTC → 27 Jul 2026, 15:53 UTC
Price at window start 21¢ → at trigger 25¢ → at close 27¢
YES up · NO down
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +5.7pts — 21¢ at window start → 27¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band — above the upper bound 26¢ (band 6¢–26¢)
band basis: warming_up
- VOLUME 24h volume $47.3k — 1.8× the 7-day norm
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $81, 6 trades in window
size baseline still forming: no 7-day trade-size sample yet
Book 2.0:1 bid, $3.6k/$1.8k within 10¢ · spread 4.1¢
Triggers (2)
- 27 Jul 2026, 14:23 UTC: Sustained reprice: 21¢ → 25¢ (+3.8pts), confirmed over 60s
- 27 Jul 2026, 14:47 UTC: Sustained reprice: 25¢ → 28¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 60s
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 25¢, drift +0.2pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 27¢, held +5.8ptspts
- Peak move: +7.0pts
- Held 82% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: no data
- Price at close: 27¢
- Graded from 84 snapshots