REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Kalshi
Fed decision in July?
Window 27 Jul 2026, 14:21 UTC → 27 Jul 2026, 15:51 UTC
Price at window start 78¢ → at trigger 75¢ → at close 74¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 29 Jul 2026, 17:59 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced -4.0pts — 78¢ at window start → 74¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band — below the lower bound 75¢ (band 75¢–93¢)
band basis: warming_up
- UNUSUAL SIZE 18 trades above this market's P95 size — largest $24.8k vs P95 $2.4k
P95 from 932 trades / 7d
- VOLUME 24h volume $627.5k — 1.7× the 7-day norm
Book 6.6:1 ask, $27.9k/$184.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (1)
- 27 Jul 2026, 14:21 UTC: Sustained reprice: 78¢ → 75¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 60s
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 75¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 74¢, held +4.0ptspts
- Peak move: +6.0pts
- Held 67% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
- Gave back half within 60m: no data
- Price at close: 74¢
- Graded from 84 snapshots